Some Thoughts on the Future

Essay by Prof. Dr. Eckard Minx, expert for future research, innovation management and organisation development

Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel, once remarked that it is highly likely that what will happen tomorrow is what we overlooked today. I would probably add: 90% of what we perceive as reality today would have been deemed a crazy pipe dream not too long ago. In his book “The Black Swan”, Nassim Nicolas Taleb has given a very impressive account of the significance of highly improbable events. It leaves only one conclusion: to dare the impossible.

The future is shaped, arranged, and, all the same, produced by today’s actions. What we do today expands or constricts the range of options available for our future actions. Only certain paths result from a multitude of alternative possibilities. The consequence is that those acting today have a responsibility for the character and quality of the future.

Visions and possible future paths are part of a society’s stock of collective ideas. When making decisions, we become aware that many different paths lead to the future. Which one we choose to take depends on our individual “worldview”. Knowledge of facts is indispensable, but we increasingly need to add orientational knowledge in the mix, the knowledge of why something happens. Moreover: comprehensive knowledge, where right or wrong are not polar opposites, is also required.

A vision of the future that takes its context into account does not try to prescribe what future realities should look like, but to describe what they could look like. Three aspects are relevant in this context:

• We will never be able to predict the future, but prophylactic thinking is one of the prerequisites for preemptive action: “Thinking Ahead” is the name of the game.
• Early identification of competing developments is a key factor for success of entrepreneurship
• Innovative companies use visions to anticipate the requirements of tomorrow and to shape them.

Which methods do we have to think ahead and anticipate possible future developments? One of those tried and tested methods is the “future laboratory”. The main building block here is “scenario planning”, which is used to describe several imaginable future worlds, the paths that lead to it, and the main forces determining it. Future labs can be used for a wide range of issues including the development of entrepreneurial visions, the stimulation of idea generation, the development of business strategies, and estimating product outcomes.

Sustainable success of a company can only be achieved if a company is successful in establishing a long-term strategic position, which must be based distinguishing its own actions from those of its competitors. One of the key success factors for such a strategy of distinction is to anticipate future changes early on and to shape them with unique combinations of innovation and business activities.

There are a number of good arguments which deal with the question of the future in great detail. Management acting in uncertainty calculates and accepts the fact that its images and expectations of the future can be deceptive. One has to come to terms with this situation without lapsing into arbitrariness. The following quote is the great guide to creative action, which is the crucial step towards shaping the future: “It is better to be vaguely right than to be precisely wrong.” (Karl R. Popper)

Prof. Dr. Eckard Minx is an expert for future research, innovation management and organisation development. Member and president of the Daimler and Benz Foundation`s Executive Board.